Write briefly on time-series analysis. (Hint: recognizing the quality of the phenomenon shown by the series of studies, and, both the aims need the plan of the viewed time series data is recognized and somewhat officially explained

Quantitative Methods

 Write briefly on time-series analysis. (Hint: recognizing the quality of the phenomenon shown by the series of studies, and, both the aims need the plan of the viewed time series data is recognized and somewhat officially explained

Case Studies
Multi Criteria Decision Making (20 Marks)
MCDA. (multi criteria decision analysis) is considered to be one of the fastest growing research operations in the last several years. The researcher focus towards MCDA led to development of many different approaches and ways in the field. There are two types of procedures: theoretical assumptions and decision addressed type. This difference throws challenges to the procedure of choosing the most ideal method for the decision making problem. Most of the time, the initial approach towards applying MCDA in the real world problems relates to the set up of simple understanding Of the context and recognizing the problem of decision. This step includes the ones• who make decisions and other important participants who make important contributions for the MCDA procedure by sharing their knowledge. The common insight of the decision framework is received by knowing the goals of the decision making body and recognizing not only those people who make decisions but also those who face the decision. • Dooley (2009) says that the first three steps take up more time in the process of MCDA, particularly because of their qualitative features. Assigning of comparative significant weights to the selected criteria is the next step: These weights can be ascertained directly, for example ranking, swing, trade off; or indirectly, for example- centrality, regression and interactive. Later, the DM has to give individual scores, considering his or her views, to each of the recognized options according to the criteria which seem vital. These scores show the decision of DM . related to spreading of each substitute to every performance standard. The information which is attained is maintained distinctively into performance template, which is also as consequence matrix, options matrix, or just decision table. The next process includes abstract of the information consisting of the performance matrix in the form of multi criteria scores, for every possible plan. Mostly, this is attained by combining the individual scores of matrix so that total valuation of .each substitute which allows more comparison. The groups of substitute ranked on the basis of all these scores. Finally, the procedure can include a warm evaluation of the outcome to amendments in the scores or criteria, to conclude the sturdiness of the result of MCDA. At the end, the analysis and tradeoffs included in the respective choices are given to and conferred with the DM. In many cases, the ultimate decision that DM takes, does not match with the highest level of alternative, as they are more focused towards the process of knowing the effect of each and every factor in ranking of choices than in the exactness of the ranking. Also, it should be observed that the generalizations are not used to of the outcome given by the process of MCDA, and they only appropriate for the group of choices which were assessed.
Answer the following question.
Q1.What role does MCDA play in decision making? (Hint: MCDA is considered to be one of the fastest growing research operations, these scores show the decision of DM related to spreading of each substitute to every performance standard)
Q2. What does MCDA stand for? (Hint: multi criteria decision analysis) A monte Carlo
Case Study (20 Marks)
Laura,’ a 57 year old unmarried woman, earns around 68,000 dollars per year with expenditure of 37,500 dollars. She hit away 14,000 dollars each year and collected 330,000 dollars in her RRSP and TFSA, and also a rented apartment worth 250,000 dollars. She has a fixed pension given by her employer, although it is not indicated to price rise, and Is entitled to get complete benefits of Canada Pension Plan and Old Age Security, for retirement. She did not have a very competent portfolio: one fourth of cash is there, and most of it was in contracted sector ETFs, single stocks and business bonds. Due to wrong entry of ETFs in the account, unnecessary taxes were charged. Even before reconstructing Laura’s portfolio,” he had to make certain that it matched with. Her financial aims. Laura’s main aim was to ascertain if she could retire before the age of 65, maybe as early as 60, therefore she had to know if her investments could produce enough flow of cash after she retires. Monte Carlo may show a top possibility of success with the allotment of equity of 70% to 80%. Through a risky questionnaire and art open interview, Justin Ill ‘ascertain that Laura was the best person for a portfolio of 60% fixed income and 40% equities. . Through Monte Carlo software, Justin entered the current portfolio . size of Laura, her rate of savings, projected retirement expenditure, and other employer income and government pensions. If Laura feels that working till the age of 63 was unpleasant, she could go for the reproduction again and with different estimation. Increasing her anticipated returns or bringing down the rate of inflation, is only a thought, therefore, she will have to make some stronger decisions: she will have to making some more savings, or bring down her rate of planned expenses after retirement. Amazingly, by bringing up the allotment to fixed salary could increase her opportunity to succeed: in spite of the returns being lower than the equities, the volatility is also less, which lessens the risk of helpless decline in the early years. At last, Laura decided to work for 6 more years and plan her retirement at the age of 63. After this, Justin decided to help her make a fresh ETF portfolio to match that goal: it was finalized at 30% short term business bonds, 30% GICs, and the rest of it was divided among Canadian, L’S and global equities. Laura was able to make a notified decision through the Monte Carlo simulation, but this wasn’t the end of the procedure. In two or three years time, she will have to visit the location again to see that she is still on the right path of her retirement goal, as many issues like, loss of job, a legacy, new connections, increase in the interest rates, all these could bring a change in the main suppositions 1 ; and she will have to redo her plans. The possibilities are different before the age of 63. For each added year that Laura works, her portfolio will addition instead of a decrease and this will lead to a thrilling difference: the success rate will rise up by 25% points if she continues to work till the age of 61 instead of 60.
Answer the following question.
Q1. How much was Laura earning at the age of 57? (Hint: 68,000 dollars per year) Finoplastika Industries Ltd, Nigeria (20 Marks)
Time series analysis has two important aims: 1) recognizing the quality of the phenomenon shown by the series of studies, and 2) Both the aims need the plan of the viewed time series data is recognized and somewhat officially explained: A time series is said to be a ‘collection of observations made in sequence with time’. For example: recording level of daily rainfall, periodical total domestic product of US, and monthly strength of the. workers in Marine Corps for a specific rank and MOS. The evaluation of time series gives instruments for picking a symbolic model and delivering forecasts. There are two sorts of times series data: • Continuous: in this the data consists of study at every moment, for example, seismic movement recorded on a seismogram. • Discrete: the data contains recordings taken at different periods ,like, statistics of each month crime. Until the data is absolutely haphazard, studies in time series are usually related to each and the following studies could be partly ascertain by the last values. For instance, the reasons pertaining to the meteorology which have an effect on the temperature for any given day tend to have some affect on the next day’s climate. Hence, the observations of the past temperature are helpful for predicting temperatures for the following days. • A time series can be deterministic if there are no haphazard or feasible features but goes in a set and foreseeable manner. The data gathered during the classical physics experiment like showing Newton’s Law of Motion, is one example of a deterministic time series. The stochastic type of series is more appropriate to the econometric function. Stochastic variables contain undefined or arbitrary viewpoint. Though the worth of each study cannot be precisely foreseen, calculating the various observations could follow the expected method. These methods can be explained through the statistical models. According to these models, studies differ erratically on the underlying mean value which is the role of time. Time series data can be put in the following categories: one or more performance factors; trend, seasonality, cyclical function and random sound. Various kinds of time series predicting models give forecasts through extrapolating the previous performance of the values of a specified \’l!riable of interest. Consecutive study in econometric times series are generally not free and forecast can be made on the basis of last observations. Although precise predictions can be made with deterministic time series, predictions of stochastic time series are restricted to ‘conditional statements regarding the future on the basis of particular hypothesis.’ Armstrong (2001) says, “The basic Assumption is that the variable ui!! continue in the future as it has behaved in the past. ” Particularly, the time series predictions are suitable for stochastic type of data in which the fundamental root cause of variation like, trend, cyclical performance, seasonality, and uneven variations, do not change radically m time. Therefore, modeling is considered to be more suitable temporarily instead of permanent predictions.
Answer the following question.
Q1.Write briefly on time-series analysis. (Hint: recognizing the quality of the phenomenon shown by the series of studies, and, both the aims need the plan of the viewed time series data is recognized and somewhat officially explained)
A Network Rail (20 Marks)
The railways play an important role in the economy and infrastructure of Britain. Not very many people travelled back jn the 1920 as compared to present time, in spite of 50% reduction in raif routes as compared to the 1960s. Rail is also used for transporting goods around Britain. Rail proves to be• more eco-friendly and safest means of transportation as compared to other vehicles so, not surprisingly, the number of people commuting have gone 40% more since the past ten years. By 2034, this figure can go up. The work of network rail has to look after the tracks, bridges and tunnels which comprises of the British rail network. The railway infrastructure is made up of signals and level crossings. It has to look after the 20,000 mile long track and 40,000 bridges and tunnels. Britain’s 18 main rail stations, from Edinburg Waverley to London King’s Cross, are looked after by the Britain rail system. Ten years ago, when the network rail took up these responsibilities, • it had to face some challenges. The rail neork was facing some problems. Trains were running late, the costs were too high and there was shortage of assets in both the people and machinery. Due to these issues, people had less confidence in the rail network. Ever since then, rail network has aimed at sustaining operations to reduce the expenses. There has been 28% reduction in expenses mainly because of economy of scale. New tracks and machinery have been bought, and there has been 90% rise in the rail punctuality. Huge projects have been given on time an towards the budget, as a result the confidence of the people has improved. Rail network has moved from ‘find and fix’ to ‘predict and prevent’ policy. This has proved to be more cost effective and competent and enabled in avoiding delay or obstruction for the people in their travel. The rail network invested approx. 12 billion pounds between 2009 and 2014, towards the rail network. Britain has the fastest developing network in whole of Europe. By investing in people, the rail network is investing in the future to. .Britain has the largest working personnel of 35,000 workers. It has people working in various positions, like, engineers for maintenance and signaling to project managers. Each area offers an opportunity to work. They also consist oi HR (human resources), IT (information technology), and finance and customer service. Network Rail needs to employ and keep capable engineers in order to get the work done. Presently, its engineers are doing some oi the most stimulating projects in Europe. The projects include HS2, which is the new super spited rail link between the north and south Britain, and the project of London Cross rail. Some oi the biggest and busiest rail stations are being upgraded, like, London King’s Cross and Birmingham New Street. The main focus of the HR of Network Rail is to recruit various personnel. This not only deepens the culture of business but it also makes sure that it can reach every talent. It offers training for every applicant, whether he is a school drop-out or a graduate, whether male or female, a continued flow of appropriate talent is ensured to keep its long term project going. The company abo gives many opportunities to its workers to receive recognized qualifications, such as an exclusive programme in post graduation, sponsoring the Master’s Degree in project management and trainee.

Write briefly on time-series analysis

Answer the following question.
Q1. What were the initial problems that Network Rail of Britain face? (Hint: It has to look after the 20,000 mile long track and 40,000 bridges and tunnels. Trains were running late, the costs were too high and there was shortage of assets in both the people and machinery)
Q2. What is the new super speed rail link between the north and south Britain called? (Hint: HS2)

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